Farming For The Future is dedicated to the education of environmental and social impacts that come with sustainable agriculture, and how food insecurity affects us all.
Globally, it is estimated that 690 million people suffer from severe levels of food insecurity; to put that number into perspective, that’s 8.9% of the global population. And it seems like that number is going to continue to rise.
When food insecurity is the topic of discussion, climate change isn’t usually the first thing that comes to mind. But it may surprise you to know that the two are heavily intertwined. Climate change is actively threatening global food security. Let’s talk about why.
A Bit of Background
Food security, as defined by the International Food Policy Research Institute, is all people having “physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food at all times required for an active and healthy life”.
But climate change has already started disrupting food accessibility and nutritional security in many regions of the world, causing billions of people to be more vulnerable to malnutrition and hunger than they already are.
Food Availability
Current climate models project higher average temperatures, ocean acidification, increased frequency of extreme weather events (droughts and floods), and greater atmospheric concentration of CO2 , all of which have already begun to impact staple crops.
Maize and wheat, for example ― two foods that together make up around 34.5 percent of the world’s caloric intake ― have started to show their decline in recent years due to hotter extremes and water scarcity.
Climate data observations also project that both water quantity and quality in many regions are expected to change dramatically, which could prove detrimental to household food security along with the livelihoods of rural farmers. With current agricultural water withdrawals representing approximately 70 percent of all global withdrawals, an increase in droughts in several regions could be devastating, especially to agriculture-dependent countries.
But what about the regions that are getting more precipitation? Studies by the EPA have shown that higher rainfall may end up producing toxic mold on staple crops and leave them more vulnerable to fungal infections or pests that thrive under wetter climates.
Rising sea levels have also been a major concern for food security. The FAO found that the Asia-Pacific region is especially vulnerable to this issue; today, it is “home to nearly half-a-billion undernourished people ― more than half of the world’s total.” Studies forecast that with saltwater increasingly flooding coastal farmlands, staple crop yields could reduce significantly, diminishing both national food security and economies.
Countries like Bangladesh will likely undergo a 15.6% reduction in rice yield due to an increase in soil salinity. Vietnam has also reported a decrease in agricultural production stemming from the impact of changes in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures.
Coastal communities that are heavily dependent on seafood as a primary source of protein are further endangered by climate change. Seafood remains the main source of animal protein in many developing countries, providing over 50% of the animal protein consumed in some areas. However, the effects of sea warming and ocean acidification are disrupting the migratory and mating patterns of fish, and threatening the viability of fisheries that these communities have long depended on.
The decline in global food accessibility caused by climate change is likely to affect the supply-and-demand of food, and “lead to increasing food cost impacting consumers globally through higher prices and reduced purchasing power.” As of now, the urban poor spend up to 75 percent of their total budget on food alone. Any rise of price spikes in the food system will only end up leaving the poorest households even more vulnerable to threats against food security.
Nutritional Security
Climate change not only affects food availability but its nutritional value as well. While food security is defined as the availability and the access of food to all people, nutrition security is defined by the intake of a broad range of foods that provide the essential needed nutrients.
The average human tends to get a majority of nutrients from plants: 63 percent of dietary protein, 81 percent of iron, and 68 percent of zinc come from vegetable sources. However, a study conducted by Harvard University found that higher carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations (caused by climate change) was shown to reduce the protein, zinc, and iron content of crops, potentially leaving millions at risk of nutritional deficiencies.
More specifically, concentrations of protein, iron, and zinc were found to be 3 percent to 17 percent lower when crops grew in areas with atmospheric CO2 levels over 550 parts per million (ppm) compared with crops in normal atmospheric levels of 400 ppm.
Essentially, when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reach approximately 550 ppm, (expected by about 2050), 175 million people ― roughly 1.9% of the global population ― could be zinc deficient and 122 million people ― 1.3% of the global population ― could be protein deficient.
These deficiencies could also end up disproportionately affecting maternal, neonatal, and child health directly through maternal nutrition. Women around the world often eat last and eat the least; when food insecurity increases, they will be affected most. About 1.4 billion women of childbearing age and children under 5 who are currently at high risk of iron deficiency could have their dietary iron intake reduced by 4% or more because of climate change.
Because of its impacts on crop yields and the supply of nutrients such as folate and thiamine, many pregnant women can not get their required nutrients, most often Vitamin D. This deficiency is linked with a heightened risk of developing issues such as preeclampsia and gestational diabetes.
For neonatal children, concerns such as low birth weight, impaired skeletal development, and respiratory diseases in infancy are often linked with vitamin D deficiency from the mother’s diet.
Looking to the Future
Acting now is pertinent; waiting to cut emissions risks multiple facets of our society, from irrevocable damage to ecosystem functions to services required for food, nutrition, and production.
The effects of climate change have already begun to ripple across the globe. With the prospects of decreasing yields and If we allow climate change to continue getting worse, we not only contribute to the detriment of our planet but the detriment of our people.
What we need is change ― and big change at that. A shift to a more sustainable agricultural sector is needed now more than ever: a way to replenish our environment and grow crops that are increasingly resilient against climate change.
And how are we doing that? Stay tuned for more installments of Farming for the Future where we discuss this more at length!